The bad news has been piling up. When will fortunes begin to change?

It has been a rough couple of years and there is no sign yet of respite. There are a whole number of companies standing closer to the edge that either they or the markets want. So many have been robust for so long, it has felt like a long time since just normality. It has been always been forecast that Q1 would be difficult but will we see a change in fortunes come Q2?

The answer seems to be unlikely for a number of reasons:

· Of course, the Ukraine situation is desperately sad and concerning. On the domestic front, it is bound to see more pressure on prices.

· The consumer is facing a daunting time with increased energy costs, taxation and inflation.

· Hopes for a Q2 recovery always rested with a mix of consumers feeling more confident so that would spend more freely and business feels more confident. The latter is beginning to happen but there is still a long road for many until they can breathe more easily. There are some very well established concerns fretting at this time.

· It has been well documented that leaders feel exhausted after the last two years but to make pressures worse, there really have been less new innovation and thinking breaking through as arguably there should have been. Many have stayed true to a model which was already under pressure in 2019 and now is struggling to stay afloat.

So where lies the good news?

There are good signs emerging;

· The numbers travelling to work during half terms have been better than feared. It has helped to build confidence.

· Hospitality is seen to be very central in the thinking of consumers and city planners. Arguably, hospitality has never held a stronger position in the hearts & minds of the public and with business.

· There is a growing understanding that there is a need for new ideas, energy and innovation to come through at the board level. There will inevitably be changes as many investors want to see a recovery. There has been great patience over the last two years but all understand that business has restarted. It may take time but change is coming.

· The economy is still set to show solid growth.

· The Chancellor has been talking about his desire for tax cuts in this parliament.

· Bad behaviours are being called out more and there is a change in the psychology of many. There is a strong impetus to see lessons learnt over the last two years are held on to – collaboration, purpose, care for the underprivileged, sustainability, etc.

Of course, the global situation can still throw everything off course but the odds are that we facing the darkest times with light trying to break through. It will probably remain tough until late summer and then some positivity will emerge. It will still take time to see stability and confidence return. So many have been robust for so long and it is a battle. However, the momentum may be turning.